Sipef Case Study

Prev. Close62.8

Day's Range63.4 - 64

Revenue383.24M

Open63.5

52 wk Range58.2 - 70

EPS12.01

Volume2,379

Market Cap674.96M

Dividend (Yield)1.09 (1.76%)

Average Vol. (3m)7,492

P/E Ratio5.31

Beta0.53

1-Year Change - 4.78%

Shares Outstanding10,469,328

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Sipef NV Quotes

ExchangeLastBidAskVolumeChange %CurrencyTime
 Brussels63.8062.8063.202,379+1.59%EUR09/03 
 BATS Europe63.900.000.0080+1.11%EUR09/03 

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Figuur 1 Hectares planted (blue; source: Annual Report "Ouderdomstructuur") and oil yield per plant (%of rated output, right axis; source: bursadummy.blogspot.be) both in function of plant age. Sipef has a lotof immature plants.

With the age structure of the plantations on the one hand, and the yield per age on the other,we can simulate the future production for Sipef, assuming no Capex is made in planting new palm oil trees. We do this by correlating the two data series, and applying a +1 year offset onthe age of the plants for every year we want to look into the future. We find that the effect of additional yield from the (numerous) immature plants maturing is more important than the detrimental effect of the declining yields of older plants, and the demolishing of +28 years plants for until 2019 (see below). Some findings:

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Sipef’s real turnover (in tons) will grow 23%, until 2019, without any planting Capex!

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without any planting Capex, Sipef can sustain current level of production for until 2024!With stable prices for all crops, this means Sipef’s turnover will grow 19%

1

 “organically”, and without any growth capex until 2019.

1 The simulated 23% growth only applies for Palm oil turnover

owned by the group

. 84% of total turnover (palm ru!!er !ananas..." derives from palm oil. 82% of the palm oil a#tivities$ turnover is in turn #oming from the group$s plantations (18% rening of third-party$s #rops" as derived from the gures in the annual report on page &2. 'e #onservatively assume all other #rops have homogeneous age stru#ture and apply the 23% growth on the 82%84% se#tion of total turnover.

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